849
FXUS64 KLUB 060526
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- TUESDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A VERY LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
- A STORMY PATTERN WILL SET IN ON THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SURFACE RIDGING OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE-TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, UNDERNEATH BROAD, WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, RISING INTO THE 60S AND
70S IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER A RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND ALONGSIDE RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND DRY FUELS, WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT, OWING TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO
THE REGION, HOWEVER, SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO WARM TUESDAY GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN REMAIN IN THE 60S ON THE
CAPROCK WITH LOWER 70S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. DESPITE THE MARGINAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NM, AND
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LITTLE CAPE DUE TO THE MOIST PROFILE ALOFT AND COOL SFC
TEMPS, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK T-STORMS. THE
STRONG LLJ TUESDAY EVENING MAY SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVERALL WITH THIS WAVE.
THE GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP SE-S FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LOW DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM NEAR THE NM
STATE LINE, WHERE A DRYLINE MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME, WITH THE LACK OF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND ONLY WEAK DRYLINE
CONVERGENCE, WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN CAPPED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THURSDAY MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS
WITH AN OPEN FETCH TO THE GULF, AND A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS OVER
THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW
STILL OFF-SHORE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE, DEGREE OF LIFT AND DRYLINE POSITION THIS FAR
OUT BUT THE QPF SIGNAL IS FAIRLY ROBUST AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THERE'S STILL TIME TO HASH OUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, BUT AT
THIS TIME GUIDANCES POINTS TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF CAPE AND SHEAR
THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, ALONG
WITH PWATS AND STORM MOTION VECTORS THAT WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
AS THE UPPER-LOW APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOCAL FRIDAY, GUIDANCE
SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THIS ROUND
COULD DEVELOP FARTHER WEST IN NM GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BACKED UP TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LIFT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SO, ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING COMES INTO PLAY
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING OR STILL OFF TO OUR WEST. AND THIS IN
TURN WILL LEAD INTO UNCERTAINTIES FOR SATURDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY. ALSO, AT THIS POINT WE
START TO SEE DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE UPPER LOW
WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE TIMING OF IT'S EMERGENCE OVER US
RANGING FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY! THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT THE
SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, AND ANALOGS FOR
THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM STRONGLY SUGGEST A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY MID-MORNING
WITH VFR CONTINUING AREA-WIDE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page