800
FXUS64 KLUB 061724
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1224 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
- ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EACH
DAY AND NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT OVER THE LOWER 48, WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MEANDERING OVER THE CWA THAT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
IMPULSE PROPAGATES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL THEN BEGIN ADVECTING OVER W TX AFTER SOLAR NOON, WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE
PATTERN IS IN A SIMILAR STATE TO YESTERDAY, WITH THE ANTICYCLONE
PARKED NEAR JTN WHERE WINDS ARE CALM AND VARIABLE. WINDS REMAIN
VEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE CAPROCK, AND WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON (EXCLUDING LOCALES AT
THE CENTROID OF THE SURFACE HIGH) IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS IN
SOUTHEASTERN CO. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE LIGHT
BREEZE COMBINED WITH RH MINIMA NEAR 15 PERCENT RESULTS IN RFTIS
CAPPED AT 1 DUE TO ERCS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. OTHERWISE, HIGHS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 70S AREA-WIDE BENEATH THE INCREASING COVERAGE
OF CIRRUS FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH ROTATES EASTWARD, WITH THE OVERCAST SKY REDUCING THE OUTGOING
BUDGET OF LONGWAVE RADIATION, WHICH WILL PREVENT TUESDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL THETA SURFACES MOISTENING ATOP A WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THETA-E WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE LCL (I.E.,
WARM MID-LEVELS) WILL OFFSET THE ADVECTION OF A MORE-STOUT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER, BUT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE, AT
AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS, IS FORECAST TO ADVECT OVER W TX DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. AS STATED IN THE PRIOR FORECASTS, MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES ABOVE THE LCL WILL NOT ONLY TEMPER THE OVERALL LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, BUT ALSO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE GUSTS. THEREFORE, MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY, WITH
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ISOLATED AS UPDRAFTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. RESTRICTIONS TO DIABATIC HEATING FROM THE
THICK OVERCAST WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH BRISK,
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED MID-DAY AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES NEAR THE
RATON MESA. POPS WILL THEN COME TO AN END AFTER DARK TUESDAY.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
SEMI-PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH AMERICA BY MID-WEEK,
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES. RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO
REMAIN INTACT DUE TO CONTINUED CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE RATON MESA,
WITH THE RESPECTIVE SURFACE TROUGH BRANCHING SOUTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW SET TO TRANSITION INTO A DRYLINE BY THURSDAY. THE FIRST
OF SEVERAL SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS IS FORECAST TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND EJECT OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS IN THE DEEP- AND CLOUD-LAYER FLOW
WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES <30 KT; HOWEVER, STRONG, MIXED-
LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL AID IN GARNERING
MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR. THE PRESENCE
OF CROSS-BOUNDARY SHEAR VECTORS, ALBEIT SMALL, WILL PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK MESOCYCLONES. THIS WILL POSE A
STANDARD SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY, AS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, WITH COVERAGE OF SUPERCELLS
REMAINING ISOLATED-TO-WIDELY-SCATTERED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY STORMS, BUT THE FLASH FLOODING RISK IS LOW THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN,
WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST. A PAIR OF INTENSIFYING JET
STREAKS WILL ROUND ITS BASE AND EJECT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE JETLETS NOSING INTO W TX LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN STALLED BETWEEN THE EDGE OF THE
MESCALERO ESCARPMENT AND THE NM STATE LINE, WITH THE MAJORITY, IF
NOT ALL, OF THE CWA REMAINING WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY, WITH INTENSE,
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW OVERSPREADING W TX FRIDAY. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SURFACE-TO-ALOFT IS FORECAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS POSING A CORRESPONDING RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL CONVECTIVE HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS NEBULOUS AS OF THIS
PROGNOSTICATION, BUT EVIDENCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH NOCTURNAL
EPISODES OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WHILE THE CWA
IS CURRENTLY IN A SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT, FLASH FLOODING CAN STILL
OCCUR IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SHORT TIMESCALES, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE HYDROPHOBIC STATE OF THE SOIL. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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