624
FXUS64 KLUB 070342
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1042 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- SEVERE STORM AND FLOODING POTENTIAL RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE LATTER LOOKING THE MOST FAVORABLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND CHILLY LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THAT
REMAINS THE ONLY PARAMETER THAT IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE UNFAVORABLE DUE IN PART TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS OVERALL COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL FORCING BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CAMS INDICATE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS FARTHER EAST. MUCH OF IT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT
PAST US-87. OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE LAST BENIGN DAY OF THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW AND DRIER
AIR WILL BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR 80S WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
OUR USUAL ACTIVE APRIL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TRIGGERING
A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MOREOVER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL DRIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOIST SE FLOW OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED STORMS AS THE FORCING/MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
AT THEIR MAXIMUM YET. MUCH OF FRIDAY LOOKS CAPPED AND THUS MORE
QUIET UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME, THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE FAVORABLE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DEEPER
FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EVEN ONCE THIS LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND BECOMES ABSOLVED BY THE MAIN
FLOW, ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK IN RIGHT BEHIND IT AND CONTINUE
THE CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL HAZARDS
WILL BE IN PLAY IF THIS MATERIALIZES INCLUDING FLOODING, DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. THAT ALL SAID, IT STILL REMAINS 5-
7 DAYS OUT AND THINGS COULD ALWAYS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. HOWEVER, THESE ARE ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES WHICH
GENERALLY MEANS THE LONG-RANGE MODELS SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THEM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...19
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