955
FXUS64 KLUB 071719
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, RETURNS
THURSDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE THE MID-TO-UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS LOW WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP INSTABILITY
LOW. WE COULD SEE MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER, BUT OTHER SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ONCE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY LATER THIS EVENING, MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL FILL IN ALOFT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OFF THE
CAPROCK. CLOUDY SKIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEIGHT AND THICKNESS INCREASES AS WELL
AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A QUIET AND SUNNY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
NO CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THURSDAY IS STARTING TO TREND
DRIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST, THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MUCAPE
AROUND 1800 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL, HOWEVER WITH PWATS JUST UNDER AN INCH, FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
AFTER A QUIET OVERNIGHT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST, SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON ALL LEVELS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERING
IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW USHERING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FORCING WILL BE
PROVIDED BY A JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST SETTING
UP OVER THE REGION BRINGING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS TO A TROUGH AND FINALLY PUSHES ON
SHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WE COULD SEE THE TYPICAL DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORM SET UP ON SUNDAY. A DRYLINE WILL STALL OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER ON SATURDAY KEEPING THE CWA IN THE MOIST SECTOR, HOWEVER IS
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. ALL HAZARDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
PRECIPITATION HAS KEPT SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
-SHRA LOOKING UNLIKELY. DESPITE THIS, SCT TO BKN SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
AROUND 10- 15G20KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE CALMING AROUND SUNSET.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12
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