412
FXUS64 KLUB 080517
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE
AREA-WIDE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- OVERNIGHT ROUNDS OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME WAS ENCOMPASSING THE
LOWER 48, WITH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE, SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE LIGHT VIRGA AND/OR SHOWERS PROPAGATING EAST OF THE CWA. FARTHER
NORTH, A COMPACT, FAST-MOVING, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES, AND HAS MAINTAINED THE LARGE-SCALE PRESSURE FALLS
AND RESULTANT SOUTHERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTION THAT IS
ONGOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DECAY BEFORE
REACHING W TX FOLLOWING DIABATIC STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS, WITH
THE A RESIDUAL BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT
WILL CONCURRENTLY DISSIPATE. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT, WITH THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT
BENEATH A CLEARING SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMERGING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHILE BECOMING NEUTRALLY-TILTED BY MID-DAY
WEDNESDAY, AND WILL MAINTAIN THE LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS. WINDS WERE RAISED A SMIDGEN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF THE LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS AND
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE RATON MESA. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY VEERED
RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE CWA, RESULTING IN RH REDUCTIONS TO NEAR
15 PERCENT BEYOND SOLAR NOON ACROSS THOSE LOCALES.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A MULTI-DAY, MULTI-FACETED SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT FOR THE CWA STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL FEATURE THE
EJECTION OF THE NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LAURENTIAN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, ALLOWING THE LOW-AMPLITUDE, SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEST
OF THE CWA TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE QUASI-ZONAL,
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS SUPERPOSITION
OVER MEXICO, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE,
MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST, WITH THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE BECOMING
BRISK AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE GENERATES ANOTHER LEE
CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RATON MESA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES ATOP WARM THETA-E
ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S AREA-WIDE, WITH THE PRIOR SURFACE TROUGH
WEST OF THE CWA TRANSITIONING INTO A DRYLINE.
THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL YIELD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT (I.E., EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 20-25 KT);
HOWEVER, STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN THE MIXED-LAYER WILL YIELD
MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1,000-1,500 J/KG. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED OWING TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF 250 MB WINDS OF 30
KT, SO DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENED STATE TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW, ONE OR TWO WEAKLY SUPERCELLULAR STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ONTO THE CAPROCK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER OCCURS. A STANDARD RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL BETWEEN 1-1.5" IN DIAMETER WILL ACCOMPANY
RIGHT-MOVING CELLS THAT PROPAGATE ONTO THE CAPROCK, WITH STORMS
DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER DARK THURSDAY. RAPID MOISTURE RETURN IS
FORECAST TO FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING, NEUTRALLY-TILTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY TO AROUND 40 KT
DURING THIS TIME, WITH LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND/OR ADVECTION FOG
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND RACE POLEWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN WEAK AS THE CORE OF THE JET STREAKS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY, WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING
WEST OF THE NM STATE LINE AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION
EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA LATE-DAY FRIDAY, WITH GLOBAL NWP
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE A NOCTURNAL EPISODE OF STORMS AS THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EJECTS OVER W TX IN CONGRUENCE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF AN INTENSE PAIR OF JET STREAKS NOSING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHARPLY DIFLUENT FLOW AMIDST AN INTENSIFYING
CORRIDOR OF HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD FOSTER A MIXED-MODE OF
CONVECTION, WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS
BACKED INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
STORMS SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS NAEFS/ENS
GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED PWATS BETWEEN 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. THESE TRENDS HAVE HELD
STEADY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY STORMS ARE FORECAST TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE CORE OF THE JET STREAKS TRANSLATE OVER W TX. THE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWATS, COUPLED WITH THE 250 MB JET STREAK APPROACHING 100 KT,
YIELDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAIN EVENT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL ELONGATE AS
THE CORE OF THE JET STREAKS ARRIVE, WHICH WILL FAVOR THE MAINTENANCE
OF TRAINING CONVECTION AMIDST THE PRESENCE OF TALL, SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES. EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL YIELD A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DESPITE THE FAST STORM MOTIONS DUE TO THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS
MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS. SEVERE-CALIBER STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST
TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL, WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OVER THE GREAT
BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
RELOADING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
DETAILS REMAIN NEBULOUS AT THIS RANGE.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30
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