499
FXUS64 KLUB 082337
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTH SOUTH
PLAINS.
- POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, BEGINS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THIS MORNING, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH AN COMPACT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES
ALLOWING LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE AND THEREFORE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
DEGREES AREA WIDE, ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50'S.
THURSDAY WILL START A SEQUENCE OF MULTIPLE DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS MODELED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BENEATH THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE, DRIVING LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS,
INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOW-LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. WHILE MODESTLY HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY MORNING, DIURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DECREASE DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY WITH
DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGESTING 500-750 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES LOWER AT 20-25 KTS, THOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER 250MB WINDS
WILL HELP ELONGATE HODOGRAPHS. AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN
NM IN THE MORNING HOURS TRANSITIONS INTO A DRYLINE, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER,
WITH NEBULOUS FORCING AND ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITATIONS (WEAKER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, LIMITED CAPE), THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY INTENSE. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO 1-1.5" IN DIAMETER,
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
TOMERLIN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THERE ARE SOME CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS PACKAGE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON FRIDAY DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MODELS
NOW INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL OPEN TO A TROUGH AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST USHERING IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, HOWEVER THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN TERMS OF
FORCING, AT LEAST OVER OUR REGION. AN UPPER JET LOOKS TO SET UP OVER
EASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BRINGING ENOUGH
FORCING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
INDICATE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE JET AXIS OVER EASTERN NM AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR
CWA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2500 J/KG WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT IS LOW WITH MODELS INDICATING MOST
STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR CWA.
THE GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR OUR CWA WILL BE
SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED
NORTHEASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ON ALL LEVELS AS WELL AS FORCING FROM
THE PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ALL HAZARDS INCLUDING STRONG WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL,
AND A TORNADO OR TWO. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, RANGES FROM 0.75" UP TO 1.25". SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE A TYPICAL DRYLINE CONVECTIVE DAY. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ALONG THE
NM/TX STATE BORDER SATURDAY AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, MODELS NOW INDICATE
THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH AS FAR AS OUR EAST CWA BORDER RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL A
FEW DAYS OUT AND CAN EXPECT CHANGES TO FUTURE FORECASTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE PUSHING BACK
EAST WITH THE GREATEST STORM POTENTIAL REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA FOR BOTH DAYS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, FRIDAY WILL WARM UP TO THE
LOWER 80S BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SATURDAY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVERAGE. TO START OFF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CREEPING INTO KLBB EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY KPVW. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED INTO THE
NEXT TAF PACKAGE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12
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