847
FXUS64 KLUB 090519
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
- WARM AND BREEZY THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY.
- DRYING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
NEXT TUESDAY
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING IS BEGINNING TO DETECT THE
PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO OUR SOUTH,
WE CAN EXPECT THIS DECK OF LOW CLOUDS TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD
EVENTUALLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE TRANSPORTS EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH LIKELY. THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS, COMBINED WITH THE
UPTICK IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL ALSO AID IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, SIMILAR TO EARLIER
FORECASTS, CHANCES FOR RAIN DO NOT LOOK AS GREAT COMPARED TO CHANCES
LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, WITH THE BETTER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
RESIDE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LIFT. GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY MID-
AFTERNOON, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PARTICULARLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO, TRACKING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NAM AND RAP,
SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEARING 8 C/KM. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS DECENTLY PRIMED ENVIRONMENT COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
MAIN THEME OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK REGIONS. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE
THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. IN RESPONSE, ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
LATEST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO FRIDAY IS STILL A BIT MURKY, WITH
QUITE A FEW POTENTIAL CAVEATS IN REGARDS TO FRIDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FIRST OFF, LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND POTENTIALLY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL HEATING PROCESS. SECONDLY, CAMS ARE SUGGESTING
PSUEDO-BOUNDARY LINGERING TO OUR NORTH WHICH COULD ACT TO EITHER
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT TRACKS OR EVEN
LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALL TOGETHER. LASTLY, WE ARE NOT ENTIRELY
SURE ON HOW EFFECTS FROM ANY CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE ENVIRONMENT,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, IF ANY. NOW, THAT
IS A WHOLE LOT OF "WHAT IF'S" IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY. WHAT WE CAN TELL SO FAR IS THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AT THE SURFACE THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS WELL FROM THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WITH PWATS SET TO BE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR NEARING AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE LACK
OF OVERALL FORCING ALOFT, WITH THE MAIN LIFT BEING SOURCES FROM
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW, INCREASE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1400-1600
J/KG, BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 30 KTS, AND STEEP MLLR SUGGEST
STRONG TO SEVERE CALIBER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET-UP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PARENT TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED H5 JET AND AREA OF DIFFLUENCE, SETTING UP ACROSS THE
CAPROCK REGIONS. SIMILAR TO THE FRIDAY "WHAT IF'S" A LOT OF
SATURDAY'S CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE ITS FATE DECIDED BY THE
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY WE SEE FRIDAY AND HOW FAST THE ENVIRONMENT CAN
RECOVER. AT THIS TIME, THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR SEVERE
CALIBER STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IF WE SEE A SWIFT RECOVERY IN THE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1700 J/KG
WITH BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS SET-UP WILL
THEN BEGIN TO FAVOR A MORE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING LONG-SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ALONG WITH A SATURATED COLUMN OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO UPPER-LEVELS AS WE HEAD TO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE, COMBINED WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LLJ WILL LIKELY ALLOW ONGOING STORMS TO GROW
UPSCALE LEADING TO A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS. OVERALL, DETAILS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT TO GET TOO DEEP INTO SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. MORAL OF THE STORY,
IN THIS CASE FORECAST DISCUSSION, NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE INCLUDING STRONG WINDS, HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART WITH DRIER AIR FUNNELING
BACK INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
RATHER QUICK TURNAROUND BRINGING PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LOW
STRATUS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KLBB AND KPVW
NEAR DAYBREAK, THEN PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. VFR WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION MAY THEN DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF KPVW THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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