331
FXUS64 KLUB 091920
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
220 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
- BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY.
- DRYING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
NEXT TUESDAY
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
MORNING STRATUS CLEARED THE FA BEFORE 15Z AND HAS GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES ON THE CAPROCK AND STRATOCU ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN EXCELLENT SO FAR TODAY WITH
DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE LOW/MID 50S AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, IF THEY DO DEVELOP. LIGHT, SHALLOW
RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS OF NOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE AND
VERY SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS ARE RATHER MIXED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. THE VERY SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING UNDER THE TROUGH AND ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND SHORT LIVED, DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. A ROUGE
GUST UP TO 60 WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW.
QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY, DURING WHICH TIME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ALONG WITH A LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 60 EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A PASSIVE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FRIDAY MORNING. THIS AND A
DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION FRIDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED BY HOW MUCH SOLAR INSULATION CAN BE ATTAINED DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE FA
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
PARALLEL WITH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND WILL RELY MOSTLY ON OUTFLOW TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN STORMS BEING OUT RAN
BY THE GUST FRONT BEFORE STORMS REACH THE I27 CORRIDOR AND BEFORE A
LLJ CAN AID IN MAINTAINING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER JET BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND UPPER RIDGING PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. MODELS VARY GREATLY BY THIS POINT WITH SOLUTIONS BEING
SEPARATED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND CAMS. SYNOPTIC DRIVEN MODELS
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, RELYING HEAVILY ON UPPER LIFT. THIS WOULD, IN RETURN,
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO AN
OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE AND LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
SOME CAMS, MAINLY THE NAM, KILL CONVECTION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
KEEP MOST CONVECTION NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. OTHERS
SUCH AS THE FV3 AND RRFS DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BRINGING A MCS ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE MCS WOULD
BE SUPPORTED BY A LLJ LATER THAT EVENING, AND THERE WOULD BE A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING IF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST
WITH THE MCS AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH
AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL BEING POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE FA BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD.
OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW AS THERE IS LITTLE LIFT WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY, BUT ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR EAST WITH THE FA BEING DRY SLOTTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TOUGH
CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA.
RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN TO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILL IN OVER KLBB AND KPVW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL RIGHT AFTER
SUNRISE. THIS CLOUD DECK IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS, THEREFORE
IT WILL REMAIN VFR. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE REST
OF TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10
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