178
FXUS64 KLUB 100505
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1205 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
- WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SHIFTING
TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
- DRYING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL NEXT
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING, RAPIDLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE. WE EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AIDING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, THUS WE EXPECT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. COVERAGE IN LOW CLOUDS LOOKS
A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT, CREEPING
INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY, CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE MORNING, DESPITE THIS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
AID IN RISING TDS WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, IN THE LOWER 80S, ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON
HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER WE COULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
ANY CHANGES FROM THE NBM TEMPERATURES OUTPUTTED.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, THE FA WILL FIND ITSELF "RIDGED OUT"
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHERE WE EXPECT
THE RIDGE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS, INFLUENCE
FROM THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BLOCK OUT MUCH OF THE UPSCALE LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, SLIGHT PERTURBATIONS TRACKING SOUTH AND OUT
AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW OFF TO THE WEST MAY TRACK JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO CLIP PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SECO WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD WHILE
A PSEUDO DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NM.
WHERE THIS DRYLINE AND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MEET WILL SERVE AS THE
MAIN POINT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION, GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING
PRESENT. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, WHICH
ALIGNS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP FAVORING THE OVERALL LIFT ACROSS
THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. HOWEVER, CAM'S LIKE THE RRFS/HRRR/FV3
ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS WE HEAT
UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION, WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG AS
MLLR INCREASE TO AROUND 7-8 C/KM, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CALIBER STORMS. THATS IS, IF WE SEE ANY
STORMS AT ALL ENTER THE FA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE
EXTENDED, BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN MAKING
ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE REGION, AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FROM THE H7 TO H3 LEVELS, WHILE SOUTHERLY
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE DOES THE SAME WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
PWATS WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, NEARING AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN
THE BENEFICIAL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF
THE LLJ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, COMBINED WITH BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVING INTO THE REGION, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE BUT ALSO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING,
BEFORE WE EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE H5 JET SETTING UP NEAR THE CAPROCK REGION WITH AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE BETTER FORCING
AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE, SATURDAY DETAILS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN
A BIT UNCLEAR AMONGST MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. PER USUAL, THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WHILE THE
NAM CONTINUES TO DRY-SLOT THE REGION ENTIRELY. HOWEVER, AS MORE CAM
COME IN, MODELS LIKE THE RRFS AND FV3, WHICH HAVE DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB AT REPRESENTING STORM MODE AND TIMELINESS RECENTLY, DEPICT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS THE FA.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, EVEN IF WE HAVE ALL THE FACTORS IN PLACE,
THERE WILL REMAIN A FEW CAVEATS WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SATURDAY. FIRST BEING HOW CLOUD COVER LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL PLAY A ROLE IN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IF
DIURNAL HEATING IS LIMITED. SECOND, HOW WILL THE EFFECTS FROM
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PLAY A ROLE IN ENVIRONMENTAL
RECOVERY. WHILE LASTLY, HOW ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, IF ANY, TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION INTERFERE OR ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THAT
BEING SAID, IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO RECOVER SWIFTLY AND STORMS
DEVELOP, GUIDANCE IS HINTING A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT WITH A SMALL
WINDOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE CALIBER STORMS. SOLAR
INSOLATION AND HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL FAVOR MUCAPE VALUES UP
TO 1500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 30 KNOTS SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AND STRONG WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. AS
WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
LONG-SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ALONG WITH A WELL SATURATED COLUMN OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO UPPER LEVELS. SEEING THIS FEATURE ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE ENHANCEMENT
OF THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH WHAT
GUIDANCE IS PUTTING OUT, SUGGESTING STORMS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY, BEFORE DRYING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE UPPER
LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TUESDAY. COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE HINTING AT A DRIER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SYSTEM FIXATED TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE WE WILL MAINTAIN NBM MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KCDS, KLBB,
AND KPVW, WITH A DECK OF LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD
LEADING UP TO SUNRISE. CIGS WILL CRATER TO IFR AT KLBB AND KPVW,
WITH MVFR CIGS AT KCDS. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND DISPERSE BY
10/18Z AT ALL TERMINALS. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS,
WITH SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 40 KT AS LOW AS 500 FT AGL.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...09
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