762
FXUS64 KLUB 101815
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
115 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SHIFTING
TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
- DRYING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL NEXT
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS STARTED MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AS OF NOON AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE FRONT FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING, AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE WITH SURFACE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY STAY WEST OF THE FA AS STEERING FLOW
IS MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION ALONG
OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE FA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND SOME STORMS MAY ENTER
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO
THE FA SHOULD ACT SIMILAR TO THURSDAY'S CONVECTION AND DISSIPATE
BY EARLY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, BUT A STORM
OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING POSSIBLE.
MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS, FOR THE MOST PART, HAVE BACKED OFF IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA BEFORE 20Z, THEY CONTINUE TO
SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE DAY LEADING UP TO THE
AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION AS A WEAK LLJ REMAINS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL BEFORE MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT LIKELY NOT
TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PORTRAYING. THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT OVERALL CAPE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH
MODELS CURRENTLY LIMITING MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE LACK OF
CAPE WILL BE MADE UP WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING JUST AS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE AND H500 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
LIMITED, WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR TOPPING OUT AROUND 25-35 KNOTS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AS THEY CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FA. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXIT EAST OF THE FA BY EARLY TO MID SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS WILL START WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WITH FLOODING BECOMING MORE PREVALENT,
MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS, SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE FA BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS COLORADO/NEBRASKA COULD
PROVIDE US WITH A BREEZY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AMPLIFIES AND BEGINS PUSHING EASTWARD. WHILE MODELS INDICATE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY DECREASE AS TIME
PROGRESSES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH A
NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION, NOT THE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE FA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILL IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10
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