531
FXUS64 KLUB 110515
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1215 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
- DRY UNTIL TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON
THEREAFTER, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
LINGERING STORMS PROPAGATING ALONG THE CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DEPART FROM THE FAR SW PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FROM PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW WILL
ALSO HELP TO STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING PARAMETERS WILL IMPROVE
BY AFTERNOON WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PUSHED OUT BY A NUMBER OF
POTENT SHORTWAVES. LATEST CAMS INDICATE AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS TRACKING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH I-27. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE SEVERE SETUP WE HAVE SEEN, HAZARDS OF WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH AND UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL BECOME A THREAT IN THE EVENING, PARTICULARLY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE TRAINING. THESE SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AN UPPER LOW WILL BECOME PARTIALLY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY. MUCH OF THE FORCING HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA AND SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR
DAY TO SUNDAY OVERALL. THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM
TUESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING DAILY STORM CHANCES THEREAFTER, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A DECAYING CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY WEST OF KPVW CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST, WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT) MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 06-08Z, WITH TSTMS WANING THEREAFTER. IFR CIGS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW, BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH
THE OVERCAST CIGS LIFTING TO VFR NEAR MID-DAY. TSTM POTENTIAL IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT
TIMING STILL REMAINS MURKY. THEREFORE, PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN
ASSIGNED TO ALL TERMINALS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING
OF TSTMS. SOME TSTMS MAY BE SEVERE. TSTM POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY
WANE FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS W TX BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...09
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