267
FXUS64 KLUB 111105
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
605 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY.
- DRY UNTIL TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON
THEREAFTER, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
LINGERING STORMS PROPAGATING ALONG THE CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DEPART FROM THE FAR SW PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FROM PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW WILL
ALSO HELP TO STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING PARAMETERS WILL IMPROVE
BY AFTERNOON WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PUSHED OUT BY A NUMBER OF
POTENT SHORTWAVES. LATEST CAMS INDICATE AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS TRACKING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH I-27. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE SEVERE SETUP WE HAVE SEEN, HAZARDS OF WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH AND UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL BECOME A THREAT IN THE EVENING, PARTICULARLY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE TRAINING. THESE SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AN UPPER LOW WILL BECOME PARTIALLY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY. MUCH OF THE FORCING HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA AND SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR
DAY TO SUNDAY OVERALL. THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM
TUESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING DAILY STORM CHANCES THEREAFTER, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ARE EXPECTED AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW, THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BECOMING COMMON THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 21Z,
AS AN ORGANIZING COMPLEX OF TSTMS DEVELOPS NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
AND MOVES EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND NIGHT. SEVERE-CALIBER
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT
AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER SURFACE-TO-ALOFT POSSIBLE AT
ALL TERMINALS. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED TO REFLECT THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF TSTMS. TSTM POTENTIAL WILL END FROM
WEST-TO-EAST, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS
WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS FOLLOWING THE TSTMS TONIGHT.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...09
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