515
FXUS64 KLUB 111727
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY.
- DRY UNTIL TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON
THEREAFTER, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
LINGERING STORMS PROPAGATING ALONG THE CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DEPART FROM THE FAR SW PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FROM PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW WILL
ALSO HELP TO STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING PARAMETERS WILL IMPROVE
BY AFTERNOON WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PUSHED OUT BY A NUMBER OF
POTENT SHORTWAVES. LATEST CAMS INDICATE AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS TRACKING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH I-27. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE SEVERE SETUP WE HAVE SEEN, HAZARDS OF WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH AND UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL BECOME A THREAT IN THE EVENING, PARTICULARLY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE TRAINING. THESE SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AN UPPER LOW WILL BECOME PARTIALLY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY. MUCH OF THE FORCING HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA AND SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR
DAY TO SUNDAY OVERALL. THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM
TUESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING DAILY STORM CHANCES THEREAFTER, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CEILINGS WILL VARIATE BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR THE REST OF TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW BEFORE TRACK EAST TO
NORTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING KPVW AND KLBB IS
LOW AT THE MOMENT, THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR
THIS EVENING. AS THESE SCATTERED STORMS MOVE OFF THE CAPROCK, THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL IMPACT
KCDS AFTER SUNSET. CAN EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILL
IN OVER KCDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GET NEAR KPVW AND KLBB,
HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BREEZY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...10
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