312
FXUS64 KLUB 111805
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
105 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- DRY UNTIL TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON
THEREAFTER, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CONVECTION IS STILL ON PAR FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY IS LACK
OF SURFACE HEATING DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE LACK
OF SURFACE HEATING, MARGINAL CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS STILL EXPECTED
AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO
AROUND 6-8 AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING AND BETTER UPPER LIFT MOVES
OVER THE REGION. UPPER LIFT IS WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
TRANS PECOS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY INCREASING RADAR RETURNS. THIS
AREA OF LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW, INITIALLY, FOR DISCRETE STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THAT WILL GRADUALLY MERGE INTO
A MCS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MCS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE EXITING TO OUR EAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL SEVERE THREAT
MAINLY BE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WITH DISCRETE STORMS AND WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WIND THREAT AS THE MCS DEVELOPS (THOUGH THE
HAIL THREAT STILL REMAINS BUT IS NOT AS PREVALENT). THE LLJ WILL
KICK UP DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THE MCS AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE LLJ WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THE MCS AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BECOME A HAZARD LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
ONE OTHER CAVEAT FOR COVERAGE OF FOR AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK IS
STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR FORT STOCKTON AND FORT
DAVIS. IF THESE STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVE TOWARDS THE FA
BEFORE CONVECTION CAN START ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, IT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. THESE
STORMS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WOULD MOVE INTO THE FA NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST/NORTHEASTWARD. MANY MODELS
HAVE DEPICTED THIS TO SOME EXTENT. OVERALL, THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION IS FROM THE I27/US 87 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS
A DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. CHANCES ARE LOW, HOWEVER,
AS UPPER LIFT WILL BE OVERALL LACKING AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE
FOCUSED TO THE EAST OF THE FA. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO SOCAL, TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE,
AND AMPLIFY. DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES, BU THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION TO FORM EAST OF THE FA AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE MAIN FLOW AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
INTO COLORADO/KANSAS. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWS
SUIT AND PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ADDITIONAL DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE FA AS WELL. UPPER FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN AS A SECOND UPPER LOW PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST COAST FROM CANADA. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
UPPER PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND ALSO DEEPENS IT WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY
TRANSITIONS IT TO A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE TROUGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CEILINGS WILL VARIATE BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR THE REST OF TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW BEFORE TRACK EAST TO
NORTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING KPVW AND KLBB IS
LOW AT THE MOMENT, THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR
THIS EVENING. AS THESE SCATTERED STORMS MOVE OFF THE CAPROCK, THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL IMPACT
KCDS AFTER SUNSET. CAN EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILL
IN OVER KCDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GET NEAR KPVW AND KLBB,
HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO BREEZY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10
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