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FXUS64 KLUB 120329
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1029 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- GENERALLY DRY NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY BEGINNING TUESDAY, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHEASTERLY TREND IN THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. EARLIER WIDESPREAD NON-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
INHIBITED MUCH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL REMAIN A THREAT, THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN, THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE MOST
FAVORABLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WATER
VAPOR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUD-COVER AROUND SUNRISE
WILL BREAK UP THEREAFTER AND SKIES WILL CLEAR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT, INSTABILITY WILL RECOVER AND SOME OF THE CAMS INDICATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK. THERE WILL NOT BE AS
FAVORABLE FORCING OR MOISTURE PARAMETERS, HOWEVER A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG AND
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ACROSS THE MORE BROAD SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAY
DRIVE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR SE
ROLLING PLAINS, BUT MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND PROPAGATING SHORTWAVES WITHIN SAID
FLOW. DAILY STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY
OFF THE CAPROCK ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-UPPER 80S FROM WEST TO EAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, COOLING TEMPERATURES AROUND
15 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, PARTICULARLY AT KLBB WHERE LIGHTNING IS ONGOING. CHANCES
MAY LINGER AT KCDS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE
STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MVFR CIGS
IN KCDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE AND MAY BRIEFLY PREVAIL AT
KPVW AND KLBB. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL CLEAR THEREAFTER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...19
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