091
FXUS64 KLUB 120510
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
- ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- GENERALLY DRY NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY BEGINNING TUESDAY, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHEASTERLY TREND IN THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. EARLIER WIDESPREAD NON-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
INHIBITED MUCH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL REMAIN A THREAT, THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN, THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE MOST
FAVORABLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WATER
VAPOR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUD-COVER AROUND SUNRISE
WILL BREAK UP THEREAFTER AND SKIES WILL CLEAR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT, INSTABILITY WILL RECOVER AND SOME OF THE CAMS INDICATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK. THERE WILL NOT BE AS
FAVORABLE FORCING OR MOISTURE PARAMETERS, HOWEVER A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG AND
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ACROSS THE MORE BROAD SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAY
DRIVE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR SE
ROLLING PLAINS, BUT MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND PROPAGATING SHORTWAVES WITHIN SAID
FLOW. DAILY STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY
OFF THE CAPROCK ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-UPPER 80S FROM WEST TO EAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, COOLING TEMPERATURES AROUND
15 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE BACKSIDE OF A TSTM COMPLEX IS NEARING KCDS, WITH -SHRA/-TSRA
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z BEFORE TSTMS MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. IFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER KLBB AND KPVW,
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KCDS AS WELL. LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN
INTACT THROUGH THE LATE-MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS. HIGH-BASED VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB AND KPVW THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED +TSRA POSSIBLE AT KCDS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME
BREEZY AS CIGS LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...09
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