351
FXUS64 KLUB 121051
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- HIGH-BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON.
- GENERALLY DRY NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY BEGINNING TUESDAY, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHEASTERLY TREND IN THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. EARLIER WIDESPREAD NON-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
INHIBITED MUCH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL REMAIN A THREAT, THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN, THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE MOST
FAVORABLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WATER
VAPOR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUD-COVER AROUND SUNRISE
WILL BREAK UP THEREAFTER AND SKIES WILL CLEAR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT, INSTABILITY WILL RECOVER AND SOME OF THE CAMS INDICATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK. THERE WILL NOT BE AS
FAVORABLE FORCING OR MOISTURE PARAMETERS, HOWEVER A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG AND
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ACROSS THE MORE BROAD SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAY
DRIVE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR SE
ROLLING PLAINS, BUT MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND PROPAGATING SHORTWAVES WITHIN SAID
FLOW. DAILY STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY
OFF THE CAPROCK ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-UPPER 80S FROM WEST TO EAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, COOLING TEMPERATURES AROUND
15 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO ALTERNATE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR AT KCDS, WITH
VFR ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KLBB AND KPVW FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH-BASED VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB
AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR +TSRA AT KCDS
COMPARED TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TSTMS AT
KCDS TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME
BREEZY AND TRANSITION TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY 15-16Z, WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT COMMON AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...09
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