713
FXUS64 KLUB 131051
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
- WARM AND BREEZY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OFF THE CAPROCK THIS EVENING, BUT WE
EXPECT TO SEE ACTIVITY DIMINISH JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER,
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE FA AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S. SOME HI-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-STRATUS WILL CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK, EFFECTING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
IF STRATUS IS ABLE TO MOVE IN, WE EXPECT THE CLOUD DECK TO DIMINISH
BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST. AT THE SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND
SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL WORK
TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MODEST 3-
HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB SUPPORTING BREEZY TO LOW
END WINDY SPEEDS BY LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION, A 30+KT H7 WIND
MAXIMUM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, AIDING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NBM WINDS CONTINUE TO
PICK UP ON THE STRONGER WIND SPEED POTENTIAL AND CONSIDERING WINDS
OVERPERFORMED ON SUNDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING A SIMILAR SCENARIO MONDAY.
THEREFORE, MONDAY WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF
NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY, HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW SUNDAY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THANKS TO
THE CONTINUATIONS OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PROMOTING WAA INTO THE
REGION. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRYLINE FUELS WILL
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE WE EXPECT TO SEE THE
STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND LOWEST RHS.
TURNING TOWARDS MONDAY NIGHT A WESTWARD RETREATING DRYLINE WILL
POSITION ITSELF BACK ON THE CAPROCK, WHILE PERTURBATIONS OUT AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGIN TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
MAIN FLOW AND INTO THE PANHANDLE REGIONS. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WE SEE LATE MONDAY EVENING, THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW
AND CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR MOST
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN WE SEE INCREASED
JET DYNAMICS AS THE H5 JET SPREADS OVERHEAD, BRINGING FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO FAVOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE-SIDE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM AND
SOUTHEASTERN CO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST,
SHARPENING A DRYLINE ACROSS THE REGION AS IT MIXES EASTWARD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING BACK ON THE CAPROCK TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW TO
THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1400 J/KG. IN ADDITION, AN H5 JET STREAK
OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WITH BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 30KTS. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS EAST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WE WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT WITH A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SETS IN. DESPITE
THIS, NBM WITH THIS PACKAGE WANTS TO HOLD ONTO POPS FROM TUESDAY
CONVECTION THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN
THAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BRINGING A STRONGER AND MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE INTO REGION FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHWARD, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BOTH WORK TO PROVIDE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL A BIT MURKY IN REGARDS
TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF POPS, WITH THURSDAYS'S POTENTIAL BEING
DRIVEN BY PERTURBATIONS OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE BASE OF THE
SHORTWAVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS TRACK
FURTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT, ITS HARD TO PIN POINT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF POPS. NONETHELESS, AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST IT WILL SHARPEN A
DRYLINE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. FAVORING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR. NOT ONLY WILL THIS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT AN ASSOCIATED FROPA WILL
ALSO DIVE SOUTHWARD BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED IN THE 60S AND
70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW. SIGNIFICANT CROSS WINDS ON
RWY 17/35 AT KLBB CAN BE EXPECTED. BLDU WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB
AND KPVW, BUT VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AT ALL TERMINALS.
SINCAVAGE
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL SEE THE RETURN OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS WHO WILL PRIMARILY BE EFFECTED
ARE THOSE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS WHERE ERCS REMAIN IN THE 70TH PERCENTILE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY MID-AFTERNOON WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. IN RESPONSE,
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FROM 12 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH 8 PM CDT MONDAY. WHILE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER LOOKS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY SPEEDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WHILE
THE AREA CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 12 PM CDT TUESDAY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>024-027>029.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>031-033>036-039-040.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...09
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