329
FXUS64 KLUB 141128 CCA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- A DRYLINE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS TO AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.
- CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK WHICH HAVE NOT SEEN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST WEEK.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, MAINLY OFF THE
CAPROCK, WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE PREVIOUS THINKING IN THE SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS
ON TRACK, BUT TRENDS IN HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS THIS
EVENING (00Z/7 PM CDT AND BEYOND) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD AFTER 00Z,
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL OCCUR ATOP A CORRIDOR OF
STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE. THESE
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WOULD SERVE AS THE IMPETUS FOR THE
INITIATION OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING, AND IF THIS
COMES TO FRUITION, THEN STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE RECENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE INDICATED INFLOW-LAYER STORM-RELATIVE
WINDS INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 35 KT AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S THIS EVENING, THE LATTER OF WHICH ARE ALREADY PRESENT IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS PER RECENT WTM DATA. RETREATING DRYLINES AT NIGHT
IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS, SUCH AS THE CASE THIS
EVENING, ARE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON WHEN IT COMES TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
SINCAVAGE
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE MONDAY EVENING HIGHLIGHTS A BELT OF MOIST
AND UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE WEST TX REGION,
A PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A
COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT,
AND WILL POSITION ROUGHLY FROM DENVER CITY TO PLAINVIEW TO MEMPHIS
BY SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES
WITHIN A POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
EASTWARD AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW. ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY DAY WILL RESULT WEST OF THE DRYLINE AS DEEP MIXING TAPS INTO
~35KT FLOW AT 700MB AND UP TO 65KT AT 500MB, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
WARM CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ON THE CAPROCK
FOR AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT BENEFITED FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK
OR SO.
DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE, WITH DEWPOINTS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 50F OVER MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SE TX
PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL, IT STILL APPEARS THE
DRYLINE CIRCULATION ITSELF WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE EASILY WITHIN REACH, AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COMPARED TO MONDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT MLCAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1500 J/KG, ALONG WITH
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEARING 50KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SE
TX PANHANDLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY EARLY SHOW WITH STRONG
FLOW ALOFT KICKING STORMS TO OUR EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM DAY AS THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES,
WITH DRY WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PUSHING MOST APPRECIABLE NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED STORM CHANCES TO OUR EAST. THAT BEING SAID,
A SUBSET OF GUIDANCE DOES KEEP THE DRYLINE BARELY OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW STORM CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DRYLINE POSITIONING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY THURSDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN, WHICH WILL
BRING ENOUGH NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO RESULT IN MAINLY
NOCTURNAL STORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY COURTESY
OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER, THIS PERIOD OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT- LIVED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH, WHICH IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS SET TO BE OVER THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS EVOLUTION
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME IN THE
LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY PERIOD, WITH GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS
INDICATING A DRIER AND COOLER PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW LOOKS LIKELY TO REESTABLISH
SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-35 KT
EXPECTED AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW. BLDU WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB
AND KPVW, BUT VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR. SEVERE-CALIBER TSTMS MAY
AFFECT KCDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE PROB30 GROUP
BEING MAINTAINED WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. EXPECT LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TSTMS IMPACT KCDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR OTHERWISE.
SINCAVAGE
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH RH VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE, RFTI VALUES OF 3 TO
5 APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK ON TUESDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE LACK OF
RECENT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM
TUESDAY FOR THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CAPROCK. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH IS EXPECTED IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE. AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK (ESPECIALLY THE
ROLLING PLAINS) ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HUMID EAST OF
THE DRYLINE, AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>025-027>030-033-034-039.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ021>023-027>029.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09
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