975
FXUS64 KLUB 151720
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF THE
CAPROCK LATE THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE ON FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH A RESTORATION OF INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON THURSDAY. TODAY AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL SEE EXTREME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO APPROXIMATELY
600MB. HOWEVER, WINDS THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL NOT BE ENTIRELY STRONG
WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF UP TO 25KT OR SO. FOR TODAY, WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE DRYLINE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE EXTREME MIXING WILL ALSO BRING VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH FORECAST SURFACE DEW POINTS CLOSE TO
OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ON THURSDAY, A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IN EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL RESPOND BY
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER TROUGH. MODELS DO SHOW
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE
RETURN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SHALLOW. AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES OF ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ELEVATED PARCELS WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT. ON FRIDAY, THE
DRYLINE WILL QUICKLY MIX EASTWARD WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING A
SIMILAR PATH. UNLIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, WE WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS THIS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR FRIDAY BUT
STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. ALL OF THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS A 1025MB SURFACE RIDGE SPILLS INTO THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE JUST AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>037-039>042.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10
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