270
FXUS64 KLUB 162324
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- WARM AND BREEZY WITH CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR BOTH TODAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT OFF THE
CAPROCK.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTREMELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MIXING UP TO AROUND 600MB. FORTUNATELY, WINDS NEAR
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KT.
THEREFORE, SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF HAND. THE
OTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A SHARP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS ALOFT TO
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HEIGHTS WILL
BE NEARLY NEUTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, A 100KT JET STREAK
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR WEST TO
GENERATE ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
BE THE PRIMARY METHOD OF LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH THIS LIFT
ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. DESPITE WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES,
INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE WITH MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY
PROGGED BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP, THEY
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT CHANCES ARE LOW GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING.
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK ONTO THE
CAPROCK AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A
DRYLINE WILL QUICKLY MIX EASTWARD WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL AGAIN OCCUR ON
FRIDAY BUT WITH AN INCREASE OF THE WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER. THESE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BRING A FURTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH
90S OFF THE CAPROCK ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
VALUES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SEND A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
INDICATING 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF AN IMPRESSIVE 10-15
MB. THIS MAY VERY LIKELY BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A
SURFACE RIDGE OOZES INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE
CAPROCK. THESE CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND SHORT LIVED WITH THIS FAST
MOVING FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THIS SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA. RETURN
FLOW WILL RESUME ON MONDAY WITH A SLOSHING DRYLINE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY UNDERCUT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS MAY BRING LOW STORM CHANCES ALONG
THE DRYLINE FOR SOME AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING, BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR 15 KT OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING AT KLBB AND KPVW. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THESE CIGS
WILL REACH KCDS, WITH VFR STILL APPEARING LIKELY THERE. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY ABOUT MIDDAY FRIDAY AND ERODE LOW
CIGS, WITH VFR EXPECTED AREA-WIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR 30 KT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>041.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>037-
039>042.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30
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