458
FXUS64 KLUB 170347
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1047 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- VERY WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT, WITH DRY AND COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SW TX PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
RAPID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS UNDERWAY LATE THURSDAY EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALOFT, A FAIRLY LARGE
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESULTANT STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN A
SUB-1000MB SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY, AHEAD OF A
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER OK AND KS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OUR AREA AS A RESULT, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY MIXING OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL
RESULT IN FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK SO FAR WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER A MAJORITY OF THE REGION YET AGAIN.
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR TX PANHANDLE
COUNTIES NEAR SUNSET, AND PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. GIVEN THE WARM
AND VERY DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
OVER A MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL THOUGH, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
OUR EAST. THE OTHER MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES APPROACHING 10 MB IN 3 HOURS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING MIDNIGHT,
MAINLY OVER THE SE TX PANHANDLE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO
BRING A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES
AREA-WIDE AS AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 60S SATURDAY AND LOW 70S ON SUNDAY, AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES
APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
ON SUNDAY MORNING. FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, UPPER RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER OUR REGION IN BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A SECOND LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA AND OR. A
WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE BENEATH THIS RIDGING IS SET TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVELY COOL ON MONDAY AS WELL. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
QUITE LIGHT. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW.
CURRENTLY, CONSENSUS FAVORS A RETURN TO GENERALLY WARM WEATHER,
WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK GIVEN
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING, BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR 15 KT OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING AT KLBB AND KPVW. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THESE CIGS
WILL REACH KCDS, WITH VFR STILL APPEARING LIKELY THERE. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY ABOUT MIDDAY FRIDAY AND ERODE LOW
CIGS, WITH VFR EXPECTED AREA-WIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR 30 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY SOUTH
WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AND TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COMBINED
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL RESULT IN
RFTI VALUES OF 5 TO 7 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM UNTIL 9 PM. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING A SHIFT TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 15 PERCENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>037-
039>042.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ021>023-027>029.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ024>026-031-032.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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