505
FXUS64 KLUB 180012
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
712 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- STRONG NORTH WINDS TONIGHT BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT, THEN DRY
AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
THICKER PLUMES OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE SERVING TO CURB SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS IN MANY AREAS AS OF NOON, BUT THIS STORY WAS CHANGING
WEST OF A DRYLINE MOVING OFF THE CAPROCK ALLOWING DEEPER MIXING IN
DRIER AIR. FARTHER NORTH MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WAS RUNNING A FEW
HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT
IS NOW ON PACE TO REACH OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES NO LATER THAN 9 PM
BEFORE EXITING OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT. ROBUST CAA
WILL FUEL IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER 13-16 MB IN 3-HOURS
WHICH IS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY NBM'S WINDS. THE WINDS OF THE HRRR
AND CONSMOS LOOK MORE IN SYNC FOR THIS PATTERN, SO THIS RESULTED IN
A LARGE EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY AND MENTION OF BLOWING DUST.
AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE STALLED DRYLINE NEAR OR EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT, THERE REMAINS A WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. ANY STORMS HERE SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME UNDERCUT THEREBY LIMITING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE DIALED MUCH LOWER BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AS A COOL SURFACE HIGH SPILLS SOUTH, YET BREEZY NE WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS COULD RESULT IN
SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
AFTER A SOMEWHAT CHILLY START TO SUNDAY MORNING, WE WILL SEE WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LOW SIDE OF BREEZY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FA. MODELS THEN SHOW A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PUT THE
FA ON THE TAIL END OF CONVECTION THAT STRETCHES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE SOME CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE, COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO MUCH OF THE FA BEING UNDER
WEEK UPPER LIFT DUE TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE RATHER THAN THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION AND THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PUSH TO OUR EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS DOMINATING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
AMPLIFY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE EASTERN CONUS. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW, THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A FAST MOVING NEGATIVELY TILTED
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SEVERE DRYLINE CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW BUT WARRANTS WATCHING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
WINDS MAY TURN MORE TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30KT. SOME LIGHT VISBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING DUST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BEGINNING MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
GUSTY W-SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
CAPROCK BEHIND A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THICK HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
WILL CURB STRONGER WIND GUSTS, BUT RHS OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT WILL
STILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ANY WILDFIRES OR LINGERING HOT SPOTS WILL BE SUBJECTED A STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS AT TIMES
REACHING 50 TO 55 MPH. WINDS WILL DRAW LOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER FOR SATURDAY, VERY DRY AIR WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TEENS COULD RESULT IN SPORADIC FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>037-
039>042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ021>036.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ021>023-027>029.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...01
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