571
FXUS64 KLUB 180337
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1037 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
LIKELY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
- A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30KT. THERE
EXISTS A BRIEF CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS CLOSE TO
06Z AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS A RETREATING DRYLINE. SURFACE DEW POINTS
WERE ALREADY SURGING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW FAR WEST THIS CONVECTION WILL EXTEND FROM
NORTHWEST TEXAS. NONETHELESS, ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED IN THE FA AS IT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED LIGHTNING
HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH VERY WEAK RETURNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE STILL REMAINS TO THE SOUTH.
THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 20-25KT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
MORNING. MODEST PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE
AROUND 1025-1030MB WILL SETTLE ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
AFTER A SOMEWHAT CHILLY START TO SUNDAY MORNING, WE WILL SEE WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LOW SIDE OF BREEZY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FA. MODELS THEN SHOW A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PUT THE
FA ON THE TAIL END OF CONVECTION THAT STRETCHES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE SOME CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE, COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO MUCH OF THE FA BEING UNDER
WEEK UPPER LIFT DUE TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE RATHER THAN THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION AND THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PUSH TO OUR EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS DOMINATING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
AMPLIFY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE EASTERN CONUS. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW, THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A FAST MOVING NEGATIVELY TILTED
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SEVERE DRYLINE CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW BUT WARRANTS WATCHING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
WINDS MAY TURN MORE TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30KT. SOME LIGHT VISBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING DUST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BEGINNING MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ021>036.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ021>023-027>029.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...01
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