270
FXUS64 KLUB 182253
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
553 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FOR THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.
- MILDER SUNDAY WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
- COOLER WITH LIGHT RAIN MONDAY, THEN VERY WARM AND BREEZY BY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
TEMPERATURES AT NOON WERE RUNNING 24-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT CHARGING TOWARD THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. BREEZY NE WINDS ARE ALREADY TRENDING LOWER AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE, BUT BY THIS
EVENING WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED ESE ON THEIR WAY TO SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. WHILE NOT NORMALLY AN IMPACTFUL SCENARIO, THIS SUBTLE
FACTOR WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 6-10 MPH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM GETTING TOO COLD, PARTICULARLY IN THE FREEZE
WARNING AREA OF OUR NW ZONES. PRESENCE OF VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE SANDY SOILS
IN/AROUND MULESHOE SUPPORTS A FREEZE. NBM CAME IN A BIT MILDER
THAN EXPECTED, SO THIS WAS NUDGED LOWER.
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN TONIGHT AS RIDGING UNFOLDS AHEAD OF A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. OTHER THAN MILDER
SW BREEZES ON SUNDAY, HIGHS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE RECOVERING
INTO THE 70S UNDER FULL SUN. THIS SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME DAPPLED BY HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM BOTH TOP-
DOWN SATURATION AND SOME UPTICK IN GULF MOISTURE FROM LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLIES. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE BRUNT
OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND STRONGER ASCENT TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY, YET WE STILL BENEFIT FROM A PROLONGED WINDOW OF WEAK AND
MOIST ASCENT WITHIN A PWAT AXIS PUSHING 1.1" AT TIMES. INSTABILITY
OVERALL IS VERY MODEST, SO LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK IN ORDER WITH ONLY
OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDER. POPS REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS MOST LIKELY. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS UNDER THICK
CLOUDS, WHEREAS REMAINING AREAS SEE 70S FROM FILTERED SUN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
SUBSIDENCE DEEPENS MONDAY NIGHT ON THE HEELS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WILL MAKE FOR THE
BEST WEATHER ALL WEEK AS WE SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT
WINDS, BUT THE WEST TEXAS WIND MACHINE PRIMES UP FOR WEDNESDAY AS
LEE TROUGHING BOLSTERS BREEZIER DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.
ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POP UP FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FROM 15-25 MPH WINDS, HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S, AND
MINIMUM RHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. A BACKDOOR FRONT
EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY COULD DISRUPT THIS THEME, BUT
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT FOR NOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING E-SE THIS EVENING. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS, HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S FOR SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR, AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER IS LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 MPH AND MINIMUM RHS FALL TO BETWEEN 9 AND 15
PERCENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ021>023-
027>029.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...01
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