656
FXUS64 KLUB 191119
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE FROM OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING SETTING UP A CHILLY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTH AND LIGHTEN ALSO SETTING UP EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW 28F IN SOME SPOTS IN THESE AREAS IF
WINDS CAN BECOME CALM ENOUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN SHIFT
OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND STAY ROUGHLY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT FROM LATE FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE SLOW TO RETURN ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AS WE
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING STARTING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. MOST OF THE LIFT FROM THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A ~100KT JET STREAK. A SECONDARY WEAKER JET
STREAK WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AGAIN TRANSVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A SLOSHING
DRYLINE BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY AND
DRY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROMOTE A RETURN TO
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A
POTENTIAL FRONT SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE PREDICTABILITY IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT ALL
TERMINALS BY THE EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ021>023-
027>029.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...12
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