183
FXUS64 KLUB 192327
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND
ARE VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP TO BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE REGION. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY TO OUR
WEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE FA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKNESS AND WEAK UPPER JET AND
THAT WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE FA FROM OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON, MOST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO
WORK THEMSELVES INTO THE FA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF WIND SHEAR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK
OVER THE FA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS BACK TO
THE REGION, MID 70S AND LOW 80S TUESDAY AND AROUND 90 BY WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS IT
IS KICKED EASTWARD BY AND UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL HELP TO BRING A DRYLINE THROUGH THE FA LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST
LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST RESULTING IN A TRULY DRY
DRYLINE. THERE WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AND WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DANGER. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA EARLY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND ONLY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CIGS WHICH ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KLBB AND LATE MORNING AT KPVW. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
THESE EXPECTED MVFR CIGS ARE LOW AT THE MOMENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...01
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