880
FXUS64 KLUB 201116
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- COOL AND CLOUDY WITH A RISK OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
RIDGING IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WHILST A SUBTLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE MOVES OUT OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO NW TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS POISED OVER S TX THIS SUNDAY EVENING AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WE SHOULD THINGS STARTING TO CLOUD UP BEFORE 12Z/MON.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS APPROACHES, THIS ADDS A BIT OF
REINFORCEMENT TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH ULTIMATELY KEEPS
CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE DAY. WHILE THE BLEND DOES WANT TO HOLD POPS
IN, IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH WOULD
VERIFY SUCH A FORECAST. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH ABOUT A
5000' MOIST LAYER WHICH IS CAPPED WITH ONLY WEAK OMEGA FIELDS
(ISENTROPIC ASCENT) THE MODE MIGHT BE A BIT MORE SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING ELSE THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES MIGHT BE A BIT
BETTER IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOME THUNDER CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AT THIS POINT,
THERE ISN'T ANY POTENTIAL OF MUCH MORE THAN THAT OF A LIGHT
WETTING ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE (MAINLY IN THE 60S) BUT IT WILL FEEL
MORE MOIST THAN EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
LOOKING AHEAD TUESDAY MORNING FINDS A HEALTHY LOW OFF THE NORCAL/OR
COASTLINE WITH RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH CO/WY BY WED AND THE DAKOTAS INTO FRIDAY. TO ITS
SOUTH, ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
PERHAPS BY SATURDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW MIGHT FINALLY TO START TO
BECOME MODESTLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF THE
STORM TRACK BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, WE'LL SEE DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES DAY OVER DAY. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY THE
BREEZIEST WITH AT LEAST SOME FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY WEST AND
PERHAPS MORE VOLATILE ON THURSDAY IN THE NW. THE DAKOTA LOW SHOULD
YIELD US A FROPA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY THOUGH QUICKLY REBOUNDING SAT. WHILE SUNDAY COULD SEE AN
UPTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES, IT'S NOT TERRIBLY ENCOURAGING
THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO CREEP INTO KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHERE WE EXPECT IFR CIGS TO MOVE IN BY MID-MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THESE LOW CIGS INTO KPVW THIS MORNING, WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW CIGS MOVING IN BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. AS
FOR KCDS, WE EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE KLBB TERMINAL BY THE LATE MORNING. WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KPVW AND KCDS,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS FAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...12
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