103
FXUS64 KLUB 201719
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- COOL AND CLOUDY WITH A RISK OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
DREARY LOW CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING THEIR FOOTPRINT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO. BROAD SOUTHERLIES IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL THIS WAVE PASSES TUESDAY MORNING;
HOWEVER, THE GREATEST ASCENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT OFF
THE CAPROCK WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAXIMIZING ALONG THE 300K AND
305K SURFACES. FARTHER WEST, JUST SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRATUS THICKENS AND
LOWERS TO SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET OFF THE DECK. WITH SUCH MOIST LOW
LEVELS, POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS INCREASING
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH 50S COMMONPLACE UNDER A BLANKET
OF STRATUS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
SHOULD NOT SEE SUNSHINE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
GARNER A HEFTY MAXT GRADIENT OF LOW 70S WELL EAST TO THE MID 80S
ALONG THE TX AND NM BORDER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WINDS ALOFT TREND EVEN
LIGHTER AS A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LULL IN UPPER WINDS FLIPS OVER FOR WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS CYCLONIC SW FLOW DEEPENS OVER THE SW CONUS
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE
DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT, LEE TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY OUR SOUTHWEST
BREEZES EACH DAY WITH THURSDAY LIKELY THE BREEZIEST UNDER 40-45
KNOTS OF H5 FLOW. INTERESTINGLY, A WAFFLING DRYLINE SHOULD LINGER
IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE MIXING EAST AND BEYOND THE 100TH
MERIDIAN FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF MUCH BREEZIER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. POPS
ARE BEING KEPT SILENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE EML APPEARS TOO HOSTILE
FOR DEEP CONVECTION. FRIDAY SEES FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP FOR
MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPEEDING TOWARD
OUR DOMAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONT EITHER
LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD DISRUPT OUR UNSEASONABLY MILD
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S, BUT ANYTHING MORE THAN THIS TEMP DROP
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
BARRING SOME VFR POCKETS FROM SPOTTY -SHRA, MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR CIGS WILL PLAGUE LBB AND PVW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE SKIES CLEAR TOWARD NOON. THE NORTHERN MVFR EXTENT SHOULD
OVERSPREAD CDS AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING. PROSPECTS FOR FOG
OVERNIGHT LOOK GREATEST S-SE OF LBB WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
STEADIEST.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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