663
FXUS64 KLUB 211643
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHER ROLLING PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR SHIFTED
OUT OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW STRATUS HAS FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE LOW STRATUS LAYER WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIGHTLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE FIRST
PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES WILL FILL BACK IN OVER AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, KEEPING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON THE CAPROCK, WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED, LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
NO CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE. UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL IN
OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
THICKNESS INCREASES WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME
AS THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS IN TURN WILL SHIFT
UPPER WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHS EVERY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TIGHTENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THESE SURFACE TROUGHS WILL
GIVE WAY TO BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EVERYDAY. WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE
CAPROCK. A DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. WE COULD SEE A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN TO START OFF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SKIES WILL CLEAR AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS
RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19
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