011
FXUS64 KLUB 211836
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
136 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
STRATUS IS CONTINUING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR ENTIRELY BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THE DRYLINE REMAINS WELL INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
BY THIS EVENING BEFORE RETREATING. SOME CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF STORM CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT
CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE OVERHEAD RIDGE TO DEVELOP, AND AT
THE CURRENT TIME THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WIN THE FIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE KICKED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BY THE UPPER CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE SIERRAS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BISECT THE FA BY THE EARLY
EVENING. WHILE NO STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE,
THE CHANCE IS NON-ZERO. WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE AND AMPLE INSTABILITY, UPPER LIFT WILL BE SEVERELY
LACKING AND DISPLACED MUCH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL RELY SOLELY ON LIFT FROM THE DRYLINE
ITSELF, AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF EVEN THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
AND DEEP ENOUGH. POPS WILL BE KEPT BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRYLINE WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE FA BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RAISE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY FROM WIDESPREAD NEAR CRITICAL TO EXTREME
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE BEING WASHED OUT
QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO SET IN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS POSSIBLY BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS A
CHANCE OR TWO FOR CONVECTION, THOUGH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SKIES WILL CLEAR AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS
RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE CAPROCK WEDNESDAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOCUSED ALONG
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 9-15 PERCENT BEHIND A DRYLINE WITH SOUTHWEST 20
FOOT WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,
WITH EXTREME CONDITIONS BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH OUT OF
THE WEST BEHIND A DRYLINE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>036-039>041.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...19
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