230
FXUS64 KLUB 221733
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER.
- DRY AND MUCH WARMER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
LOW STRATUS WAS RETURNING FOR AN ENCORE TONIGHT ON A BROAD AND MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. THE DRYLINE AT 10 PM HAD ALREADY RETREATED INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM AFTER SOME HONEST ATTEMPTS AT BREAKING
THE CAP TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR MORTON. SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING FAVOR A STRATUS EVENT DUE TO STEADY WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE, BUT THIS FLOW COLLAPSES TOWARD THE TX-NM BORDER WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE EDGE OF STRATUS NEARBY POINTS TO RADIATION FOG
POTENTIAL. INSERTED PATCHY FOG MENTION HERE THROUGH MID-MORNING
UNTIL MIXING TRANSPORTS DRIER SW WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS DRYING
WILL SCOUR AWAY THE REMAINING STRATUS AND LEAD TO THE DRYLINE MIXING
TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK BY PEAK HEATING BEFORE STALLING
NEARBY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THICKER MOISTURE. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BACKGROUND ASCENT REMAINS VERY MEAGER DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WHICH OFFERS NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT FALLS IN OUR
AREA. IN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED MILLIBARS, THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION
ALONE SHOULD STRUGGLE IN LOFTING PARCELS THROUGH A WARMING EML
PROGGED TO RESIDE FROM 750-700 MB. AS SUCH, POPS WILL BE KEPT SILENT
WHICH JIVES WITH THE MAJORITY OF CAMS. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT ONCE
AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AFTER SUNSET, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH SHALLOWER
AND MORE MODIFIED FOLLOWING DEEPER MIXING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
STRONGER AND DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY COURTESY OF
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
WILL SWEEP THE DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
VERY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. NBM WINDS
WERE NUDGED HIGHER FROM 15Z-00Z TO GIVE MORE JUSTICE TO THE DEEP AND
DRY MIXING TAPPING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT. A SLOWING COLD FRONT
MAY MANAGE TO INFILTRATE OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LEE TROUGHING RESUMES ON FRIDAY UNDER SWIFT, SEMI-ZONAL FLOW.
GUIDANCE AGREES IN THIS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK SURFACE
LOW ANYWHERE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS CONCERN THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING A BACKDOOR
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THAT COULD EASILY THROW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPS.
ON TOP OF THIS, A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF DRYLINE AND/OR FRONTAL
STORMS COULD EMERGE IN THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY IF THIS BACKDOOR
FRONT LINGERS. THE NAM TENDS TO PERFORM BETTER WITH THESE SHALLOW,
BUT IMPACTFUL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS, SO LATER FORECASTS WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH FIVE DAYS OUT, SUNDAY IS LOOKING
QUITE WINDY AND DUSTY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS IN EVEN STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD SWEEP THE DRYLINE
OUT OF AREA AND OPEN THE DOOR TO HIGHER-END FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
MVFR CIGS AT CDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 18Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
AFTER STRONG RH RECOVERIES INTO THE 90S TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
MORNING AREAWIDE, A DRYLINE WILL EXIT NEW MEXICO AND STALL NEAR THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK BY MID-AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRYLINE, BREEZY SW
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH RHS FALLING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED TO OCCASIONALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE
CAPROCK. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 1
PM UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK.
GENERALLY POORER RH RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
GREATER FIRE THREAT FOR THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
AS SW WINDS JUMP TO 20-25 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MINIMUM RHS
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>036-
039>041.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...51
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