161
FXUS64 KLUB 221900
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
200 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT ON THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.
- A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
- HOT AND DRY WEEKEND IN STORE, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH STRONG, WESTERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED THE FA LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AS OF NOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK BEFORE RETREATING TO THE STATE LINE LATER TONIGHT. A VERY
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO STILL EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
CONVECTION IS LOW DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY AS LIFT, ESPECIALLY
UPPER LIFT, WILL BE LACKING. ANY LIFT WILL HAVE TO COME SOLELY FROM
THE DRYLINE ITSELF, AND THAT LIFT IS MARGINAL AT BEST. IF A STORM
DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED BUT COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AN WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THERE IS CURRENTLY
NO PRECIP MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND WILL MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DRYLINE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE NEAR BUT BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL SPEEDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
DRYLINE AND DROP THURSDAY AFTERNOON RH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS
WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE MIXING BEGINS
TO DECREASE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A MODEST COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND RESULT IN A
SLIGHT COOL-OFF FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO
BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST. UNDER BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY,
WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY AND WE MAY SEE SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECT WESTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE FRIDAY, AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME STRATUS TO START OFF SATURDAY AS FAR WEST AS THE MOISTURE
MAKES IT. HOWEVER, THE SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL NOT HOLD AS SWIFT,
DRY, WEST-SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW MIXES DOWN DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND IN THIS PATTERN WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPROCK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY, WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGING WEST TEXAS UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEEP CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN INCREASE IN OUR SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL (30-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH) WITH SOME BLOWING DUST ALSO EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY
WITH SOME 100S POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
SUPPORTIVE OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EVEN
GIVEN SOME SEASONAL GREEN-UP OF FUELS.
AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES TO OUR EAST, WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEGREE OF
COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND PERHAPS A WEAK
FRONT, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DIG A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND
THAT MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE ROLLING PLAINS TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
MVFR CIGS AT CDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 18Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE CAPROCK WHERE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 10-15 PERCENT WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
WITH AREAS OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A RFD WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED SATURDAY AND
THEN INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>036-
039>041.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...51
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