359
FXUS64 KLUB 231650
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN EXPECTED TODAY. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
- WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
- HOT AND DRY SUNDAY, WITH A RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. COMBINED WITH ELEVATED WINDS
ALOFT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT MIX DOWN,
RESULTANT BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS, AND HENCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON TO 8 PM.
WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
TO THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET, WITH CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING LOWS OVER THE FAR SW
PANHANDLE, FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS THEY WILL STILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 OFF THE
CAPROCK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WILL RETURN SATURDAY
WITH ZONAL 500 MB FLOW AND CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~990
MB SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE LLJ WILL BE
MUCH STRONGER THAN THAT OF THURSDAY AND SUSTAINED WSW WINDS MAY
REACH 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ON THE CAPROCK. THIS WILL BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIKELY BLOWING DUST
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIGHTLY DROP TEMPERATURES MONDAY, BUT THEY WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA THEREAFTER WHICH MAY BRING
THE FIRST STORM CHANCES IN SEVERAL DAYS DEPENDING ON ITS DEPTH AND
EXACT TRACK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND VEER SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS COULD REACH 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FROM NOON TO 8 PM WITH A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT STONEWALL COUNTY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIGHTLY BRING DOWN
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON THE CAPROCK WITH HUMIDITIES PERSISTING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MOST WIDESPREAD FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>036-
039>041.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01
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