940
FXUS64 KLUB 232300
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS HAS TRIGGERED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE LOW. WE
CAN EXPECT WINDS TO START RAMPING UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM THE LEE TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAN ALSO
EXPECT PATCHY BLOWING DUST FOR THE SAME AREA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS
PREVALENT THIS MORNING HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED LEAVING SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO MID 90S OVER
SOUTHER ROLLING PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
REACHING AS LOW AS 6 PERCENT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS, MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS,
AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM TODAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING BEGINNING JUST
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF,
LOOSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SHOULD BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S OVER THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UP TO LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW WILL FILL IN ALOFT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. FRIDAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER HIGHS REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK, AS DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH RH VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS 7 PERCENT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY THE START
OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO RAIN CHANCES IN SIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TRIGGER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE SIDE TROUGHS BRINGING BREEZY WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. CURRENTLY,
FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS FOR SUNDAY ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
HOWEVER AS WE GET CLOSER, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR FUTURE
FORECASTS. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAIN
WARM IN THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WE COULD SEE
A SLIGHT "COOL DOWN" BY MID-NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS INDICATING A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THICK CIRRUS OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, WITH VFR
PREVAILING AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND VEER NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS COULD REACH 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FROM NOON TO 8 PM WITH A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT STONEWALL COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIGHTLY
BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE CAPROCK WITH HUMIDITIES PERSISTING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MOST WIDESPREAD FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>036-
039>041.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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