351
FXUS64 KLUB 242331
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
WARM BUT PLEASANT FRIDAY IS STILL ON TRACK. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
FOLLOWING A FRONT THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE WEST AS A
LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SHOULD BE A PLEASANT EVENING IF YOU HAVE
ANY OUTDOOR PLANS. MODELS INDICATE A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER SUNSET BEFORE STALLING AND
DISSIPATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. SURFACE FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AND BREEZIER COMPARED TO FRIDAY. A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEE SIDE TROUGH. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AND RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. WAA FROM WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RH
VALUES REACHING SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPROCK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SATURDAY DUE TO
BREEZY WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND HOT TEMPERATURES. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
IF YOU DIDN'T GET ENOUGH BREEZY WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY, I HAVE GOOD NEWS FOR YOU, SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A RINSE
AND REPEAT OF SATURDAY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NORTHEASTERN NM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AS A RESULT OF THIS LEE SIDE LOW RESULTING IN WINDS RAMPING
UP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO BORDERLINE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY DUE TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND RH
VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM
SUNDAY.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS BREEZY WINDS,
WARM TEMPERATURES, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WE WILL SEE A BREAK
IN WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S TO 90S WILL PREVAIL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE START OF A COOL
DOWN THAT MAY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING BACK TO BACK COLD
FRONTS. THE FIRST FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND FRONT POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BRINGING MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP JUST YET
AS THIS IS STILL ABOUT A WEEK OUT AND WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE FOR
FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARRIVING AFTER DARK AS A DECAYING FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KCDS
AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR OR MVFR CIGS AT KLBB AND KPVW CLOSER TO
SUNRISE, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW AND WILL THEREFORE OMIT TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
VFR WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER CO WILL BRING BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATEST WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPROCK. RH VALUES WILL START OFF UP
TO 60 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TO SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RECOVERING UP TO 30 TO
50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
TO BORDERLINE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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