465
FXUS64 KLUB 250524
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1224 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- CONTINUED ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, RESPECTIVELY.
- STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE MODERATED IN THE
UPPER 50S, WHILE ELSEWHERE WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 COOLER WITH MORE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING SATURDAY COMBINED
WITH DOWNSLOPING BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE
CAPROCK IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE ~990 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AS USUAL WITH THIS SETUP, STRONGER WSW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS
WILL OCCUR ON THE CAPROCK WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH (HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SW TEXAS PANHANDLE). THE
STRONGEST LLJ CORE (AROUND 60 KTS) WILL BE OFFSET WITH THE PRIME
SURFACE LOW LOCATION AND NOT REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL
LATE-EVENING WHICH LUCKILY SHOULD INHIBIT WINDS FROM EXCEEDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SPEEDS. WITH CONTINUED SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITIES, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. BLOWING
DUST MAY AS WELL LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOW-TO-
MID 90S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS
EASTWARD. GIVEN VERY DRY FUELS AND CONTINUED SINGLE-DIGIT
HUMIDITIES, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG, PEAKING SUSTAINED NEAR 25
MPH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY. THESE WILL RECOVER TUESDAY WITH A TIGHTER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS, ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
SOMEWHAT BE CURTAILED WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WE WILL
FINALLY SEE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF STORMS IN SOME TIME DOWNSTREAM OF
IT. ACTIVE WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER IT REMAINS TOO
EARLY TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR AT LBB AND PVW. MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVED IN CDS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
AND WILL DROP TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE SCOURING OUT
TOWARD 14Z. THIS SAME BACKDOOR FRONT AT CDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE LOW CIGS FOR CDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN EXPECTED TODAY. SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. STRONGER
WESTERLY WINDS FROM 25-30 MPH, GUSTING TO 45-50 MPH ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY, HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SW TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH BE SLIGHTLY CURTAILED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
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