689
FXUS64 KLUB 251805
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
105 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TODAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY.
- STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE CAPROCK IS STILL ON PAR FOR TODAY.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSED OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH TRIGGERED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO RAMP UP WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH ON THE CAPROCK ALREADY. BREEZY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID
80S TO UPPER 90S, AND BREEZY WINDS WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TODAY
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE EXIT OF THE SURFACE LOW. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTHWEST PART WAY THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL
SEE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT. A LOW CLOUD DECK WILL FILL IN OVER THE AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THE LOW STRATUS LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND LOWER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP TO SATURDAY. A PASSING UPPER
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
LOW, HOWEVER THIS TIME OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO. TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL GIVE WAY TO BREEZY TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES ON THE CAPROCK. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL
8 PM CDT SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH RH VALUES
REACHING AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS, ROLLING PLAINS, AND THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER IS NOT OVER YET. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW FROM SUNDAY WILL EXIT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE THAT RESULTED IN THE SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER JET
WILL MOVE IN OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. AS THE JET
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE CAPROCK AS MODERATE
TO BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE SECOND EXPECTED FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE MOMENT,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES START LATE WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS EITHER TO THE NORTH OR BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ADDITIONAL LOW CIGS AND VISBYS WILL BE LIKELY
AT KCDS BUT IS UNCLEAR AT WHAT LEVEL THESE LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE. THERE EXISTS A SMALL CHANCE OF THESE CIGS AND VISBYS
MAKING THEIR WAY TO KPVW AND KLBB AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS OCCURRENCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH PART WAY
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE. THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL
SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN SUNDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO WILL BRING BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. RH VALUES WILL DECREASE
AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS, ROLLING PLAINS, AND THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO DECREASE. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
MONDAY. AN UPPER JET MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL BRING BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL SUNSET. RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELEVATE FIRE DANGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ021>023-
027>029-033>035-039>041.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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