803
FXUS64 KLUB 260527
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY
AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THICKER CIRRUS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILD UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNSET WHEN GRADUAL CLEARING
WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THIS TIME
OVER THE FAR SE PANHANDLE. A BROAD TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW,
MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF SE COLORADO DURING THE DAY. RESULTANT
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR, PARTICULARLY
ON THE CAPROCK. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-27
FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE 90S AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY FUELS, STRONG WINDS, AND
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED THROUGH
DEPARTS EASTWARD. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN
SUNDAY, HOWEVER STILL CLIMB TO THE MID 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. WHILE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY, FUELS ARE STILL QUITE LOW AND
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL WILL AGAIN BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, POTENTIALLY
GUSTING TO 40 MPH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
PERSIST WITH LOW RHS AROUND 5% ON CAPROCK. THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY THE
MORNING, LEADING TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. AS SUCH, HIGHS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK INLAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF, HOWEVER BOTH SOLUTIONS DO EVENTUALLY INDICATE WIDESPREAD
RAIN (YES RAIN!) CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, POTENTIALLY WITH HIGHS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 50S ON
FRIDAY. WHILE THINGS COULD OBVIOUSLY CHANGE, CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GIVEN MODELS HAVE NOT DEVIATED FROM THIS GENERAL IDEA FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VFR SHOULD AGAIN COLLAPSE TO IFR AT CDS IN A FEW HOURS AND LIKELY
PVW AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY IMPACT LBB BY SUNRISE WITH SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS, BUT THIS
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AFTER VFR RETURNS BY MID/LATE
MORNING, SW WINDS JUMP TO 20-30 KNOTS WITH SOME BLDU POSSIBLE AT
LBB BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE
CAPROCK WITH WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50
MPH POSSIBLE. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH
8 PM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY, HOWEVER LOW HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS
6% ALONG WITH VERY DRY FUELS WILL CONTINUE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREA-WIDE
ON TUESDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
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