685
FXUS64 KLUB 261751
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1251 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT AND FROM
NOON TO 8 PM MONDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BREEZY
TO BORDERLINE STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM CDT TODAY. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL
BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE CAPROCK. CURRENT RH VALUES RANGE FROM
LOWER TEENS OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO LOWER 50S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO
AROUND 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY. A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM CDT TODAY.
WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
STAY DOWN FOR LONG. A MID TO UPPER JET ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A LEE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE, SUSTAINING BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPROCK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION. CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH BREEZY WINDS, LOW RH
VALUES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS, ROLLING PLAINS, AND THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH YET ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER
DAY BEFORE THE LONG AWAITED RETURN OF PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER RINSE AND REPEAT, SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRIGGER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NM/CO BORDER. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES WILL REACH AS LOW AS 6
PERCENT. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS
WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE IN OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MID-WEEK BEFORE TRACKING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN RESPONSE, WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST USHERING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CHANCES
LOOKS TO BE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PREVAILING CLOUDS, WE
COULD SEE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAPROCK THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH BOTH LBB AND PVW LIKELY EXPERIENCING SUSTAINED WINDS
AOA 25 KNOTS, AND GUSTS TO 35+ KNOTS, BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL LIKELY LOFT SOME DUST, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR BLDU IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SURGE WILL NOT
MAKE IT TO CDS, THOUGH MODESTLY BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
UNFOLD HERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET,
THOUGH STILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOLIDLY
BREEZY (TO LOW-END WINDY) WESTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND AND AFTER 14Z TOMORROW. STRATUS WILL NOT RETURN TONIGHT, SO
VFR WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
BORDERLINE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS, ROLLING PLAINS, AND
THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM CDT TODAY.
WINDS WON'T STAY DOWN LONG AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING
OVERHEAD WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RAMPING WESTERLY WINDS UP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL SUSTAIN THE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SUNSET MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. AFTER DROPPING AS LOW AS
9 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, RH VALUES WILL RECOVER UP TO AROUND 30
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY WILL DROP AGAIN DOWN TO SINGLE
DIGITS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS, ROLLING PLAINS, AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
REACHING AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>023-027>029-
033>035-039>041.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...23
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