362
FXUS64 KLUB 270343
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1043 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MONDAY AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDY AND DUSTY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH.
THIS WILL MODERATE LOW TEMPERATURES, FALLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER NW NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY DEEPENING TO JUST BELOW 1000 MB
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS SUCH, WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WITH DRY FUELS AND HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON THROUGH 8 PM. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY, RANGING
FROM THE LOW-TO-MID 80S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOW 90S OFF THE CAPROCK.
TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A REPEAT OF MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES, ALBEIT A BIT MORE SHALLOW.
NONETHELESS, A SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN ITS USUAL LOCATION TO OUR
NW. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO MONDAY AND GIVEN THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITIES,
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
EXCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH THEN EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL FINALLY END THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND HIGHS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ONSHORE NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING A STRONG FETCH OF UPPER PACIFIC
MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF IT. SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING IN GULF
MOISTURE. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF,
HOWEVER IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN IS THE SAME AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY ALL
THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOULD THIS HOLD, TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD BY SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN
OF WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING WITH
SOME MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLDU POSSIBLE AT KLBB AND
KPVW. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE
BREEZY SIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME TRANSIENT LLWS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
HOURS SURROUNDING 06Z, BUT THE ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND BECOME STRONG ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH SINGLE-DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
NOON THROUGH 8 PM. NEARLY THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS, EXCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30
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