433
FXUS64 KLUB 271749
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1249 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
EARLY THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON EVEN IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST TODAY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
STRONG SURFACE WINDS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ALSO MOVE OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY BE LIFTING DRY AIR.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
STRATUS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS PHENOMENA OCCURRING. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY STALL OUT AFTER SUNRISE AS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
COMMENCES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RESPONSE WILL TAKE PLACE IN NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE FORM OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE. BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB. WINDS
NEAR THE TOP OF THIS LAYER WILL BE AROUND 40KT AND NOT DECREASE
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY, HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY BUT
LIKELY TOO LATE TO INHIBIT ANY POTENTIAL MIXING. THE EXTREME MIXING
WILL ALSO BRING VERY DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON TUESDAY WITH DEW
POINTS LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FURTHERMORE, TEMPERATURES WILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER HEALTHY BOOST WELL INTO THE 90S OFF THE CAPROCK DUE
TO THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FINALLY UNDERGO A CHANGE LATE ON TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. COOL, EASTERLY, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COMPLICATED
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL EMERGE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
ON THURSDAY WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT TO THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY ON THURSDAY. ASCENT WILL INCREASE
IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY COME FROM THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE ON THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING AND LATITUDE OF THE TROUGH HAS VARIED A BIT
WITH EVERY MODEL RUN SO THIS FORECAST CAN EASILY CHANGE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP INSTABILITY
VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD, THEREFORE,
SEVERE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW BUT SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
IS A STRONGER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MOISTURE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
SOME LIGHT VISBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST MAY BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BEYOND VFR. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY OOZE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS AT KCDS AND POSSIBLE CIG/VISBY RESTRICTIONS.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01
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