777
FXUS64 KLUB 280542
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK TODAY.
- RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEARING
SKIES, AND LOWS RANGING WEST TO EAST FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S.
A MORE SHALLOW TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM. UPPER
HEIGHT RISES WILL BRING WARMER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE BY MORNING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO-MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ONSHORE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY. INITIALLY MODELS INDICATED IT REMAINING CLOSED AND THUS
SOMEWHAT STRONGER. NOW IT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MUCH OF THE RAIN DOWNSTREAM LOOKS TO BEGIN
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, PERSISTING ALL DAY. WHILE IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
TOO SOON TO GIVE SPECIFIC AMOUNTS, PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE RAIN AND HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY, HOWEVER AN
APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE A.M. AT LBB AND PVW,
WITH GUSTS UNDER 30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL
TURN WINDS EASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
ALONG WITH SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITIES NEAR 5% WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE CAPROCK. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM.
A COLD FRONT WITH EASTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
FINALLY LEADING TO LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
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