696
FXUS64 KLUB 281740
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1240 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY BETWEEN
A LARGE RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL
DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY
OF RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY BREEZES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUING ON THE CAPROCK. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR AMA TO AREAS
JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT WILL STALL AND MAKE LITTLE
WESTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS
ADVANCE THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNSET AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT SOME DEGREE OF LOW CLOUD COVER IS STILL EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND SOME VERY
LOCALIZED LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER
GIVEN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE, A
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS A RIBBON OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALIGNS
OVERHEAD. AT THIS POINT, WE EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT,
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOLER THOUGH,
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A PERIOD OF MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL COME AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A SERIES
OF UPPER DISTURBANCES OVER THE BAJA REGION. COMPARED TO PRIOR
FORECASTS, MODEL CONSENSUS NOW FAVORS A COUPLE OF DISTINCT OPEN
WAVES TRANSITING OVER THE REGION INSTEAD OF A SINGLE WELL-DEFINED
TROUGH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DELAY IN THE TIMING OF
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION, WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROGGED TO
BE RELATIVELY STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD, SO WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS VERY
UNLIKELY DUE TO COOL AND STABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. STILL, THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT, PLENTIFUL MID AND UPPER
MOISTURE, AND THE EXPECTED LONG DURATION OF ON-AND-OFF RAIN
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC TOTALS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY POINTS TO A DECENT
PROBABILITY OF MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A HALF INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL TOTAL, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVES. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE 60S ON THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING STUCK IN
THE 50S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS
WELL, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 30S OVER MOST OF
THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGHS STILL LIKELY TO BE A BIT
COOL ON SATURDAY, BUT RETURNING MORE TOWARDS NORMAL BY SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK LOOKS LIKELY TO START OUT WARM AND DRY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD, WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING BY MIDWEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. FOR NOW, A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST IS FAVORED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WEST
WINDS AT KLBB AND KPVW WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE KCDS SEES MORE MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS
EVENING, WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT ALL TAF SITES AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS NEAR SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW FOR TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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