420
FXUS64 KLUB 290526
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A BREAK IN THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS IMMINENT FOR THE REGION
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF COOLER WEATHER WILL BE
KICKED OFF BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND FIVE
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL. SOME BRIEF LOW
STRATUS MAY EMERGE BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN PREVENTING FULL SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST DRAWING UP INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO
CREATE PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THE AREA WILL IN THE VICINITY OF AN ENTRANCE REGION OF A
~130KT JET STREAK BUT MAY BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO BRING ANY
APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AT THE SAME TIME, MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL GARNER VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OVERHEAD BRINGING
AT MOST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITHIN THE LIGHT
RAINFALL. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ARRIVE LATE ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY A CLOSED OFF LOW SITTING
WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THIS LOW AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. THIS PLACES THE BEST LIFT FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. OUR BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON FRIDAY BUT THIS
COULD DELAY EVEN LATER AS THIS LOW WILL STRUGGLE TO COME ONSHORE.
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ON FRIDAY
LEADING TO AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. AT THE MOMENT, SEVERE
CHANCES ARE ZERO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL SURGE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL CUT OFF THIS
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ANYWHERE FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THE WEEKEND, SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE
OVERHEAD BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR MAY BE INTERRUPTED ON/OFF AROUND DAYBREAK BY SOME MVFR STRATUS
AT LBB AND PVW, BEFORE REVERTING TO HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93
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