408
FXUS64 KLUB 292321
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AS MODEST EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF COOL SURFACE
RIDGING OVER KANSAS. DESPITE THE COOLDOWN, LOW AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED, RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BENEATH INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EVEN COOLER DAY COMPARED TO
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FORECAST TO ONLY PEAK IN THE MID
60S. PRECIPITATION-WISE, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY
LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY DUE TO A LACK OF
COHERENT LARGE-SCALE LIFT. HOWEVER, SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
STILL EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOW/MID CLOUD LAYER WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ROAMING THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID, THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF A COMPACT CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
WHICH WILL OPEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION AS A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FURTHER INCREASE
IN COLUMN MOISTURE AS A PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME ANGLES OVERHEAD, WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO END UP ABOUT 150-200% OF SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY, BOTH BY ISENTROPIC MEANS AND DUE TO BROAD JET-LEVEL
DIFLUENCE. AS A RESULT, A SHIELD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE WEST TEXAS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE MODEST ENOUGH SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING WILL NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN, BUT THE EXPECTED RELATIVELY
LONG DURATION OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY COULD STILL RESULT
IN SOME OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WHICH
CONCENTRATES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
NEVERTHELESS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF A HALF INCH FOR THIS EVENT, WITH SOME ONE INCH OR GREATER TOTALS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
DRY WEATHER WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN BY SATURDAY AS THE PRIMARY
UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS TO OUR EAST. THERE COULD END UP BEING A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD, BUT THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BUILD JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARM-UP LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME, BUT DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
STILL FAVORED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS BY 15Z
THURSDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MVFR CONDITIONS, THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...51
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