825
FXUS64 KLUB 300356
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1056 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND, ALONG WITH EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS, HAS HELPED KEEP THE FA COOL THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE REGION
IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED TONIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS
DIVERGENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING HAS NOT YET TAKEN HOLD. THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE MID MORNING WITH STRATUS LOWERING. THIS MAY RESULT IN
LIGHT DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF THE SOCAL COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LIFT AND DIFFLUENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO/CHIHUAHUA. THE ADDITIONAL LIFT
WILL ALLOW DRIZZLE TO TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO
THE FA. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER TO THE WEST OF THE FA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE REGION
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE
60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES INCHING FURTHER EASTWARD. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL SHOULD PEAK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY RECEIVING A SOAKING RAIN (POSSIBLY
HEAVY AT TIMES) TO ONLY RECEIVING LIGHT RAINFALL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FA WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN US AS IS SHOWN BY THE WPC
ERO. THIS WILL HELP TO AT LEAST KEEP THE RISK FOR STREET FLOODING
LOW. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS, WHILE IT IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE, LITTLE
IF ANY THUNDER IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRATIFORM NATURE OF THE RAIN
AND A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY. WE WILL ALSO SEE EVEN COOLER HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ONLY REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 40S WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS WARMS INTO THE MID 50S. HOWEVER,
WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IF WE RECEIVE LESS RAIN THAN
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
ANY RAINFALL THAT REMAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL TAKE
HOLD LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER, THE WEEKEND
SHOULD STILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 70S
BY SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS BY 15Z
THURSDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MVFR CONDITIONS, THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...51
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