295
FXUS64 KLUB 301737
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST FILLING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN OVERHEAD. THE LOW STRATUS
LAYER THAT FILLED IN OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY, HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. LIFT FROM A PASSING UPPER JET WILL KEEP BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRANSLATE ON SHORE AND CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
REACHES NM, IT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN TO A TROUGH BEFORE PASSING ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROLONG RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR OUR
REGION WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CONUS
EFFECTIVELY KILLING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAPE RANGING
BETWEEN 0 TO 100 J/KG, NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
OFF THE CAPROCK. PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES OVER THE
EXTREME FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UP TO 1.25 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
RAIN SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. THE ENTIRE CWA COULD SEE SOME RAIN WITH STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UP TO 1.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PREVAILING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS, TODAY WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES OF MID TO
UPPER 50S WILL SLIGHTLY WARM TO THE LOWER 60S FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN SHOWERS, TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OFF THE CAPROCK TO WARM TO THE LOWER 60S WHILE
TEMPERATURES ON THE CAPROCK WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT CAUSED THE RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEFORE MOVING OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL DRY CONDITIONS
OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP THAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. 80 TO 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. DEPENDING ON THE
FUELS FOLLOWING THE RAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE LEE LOW EXITS THE REGION, A BACK DOOR FRONT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK, THOUGH NOT BY
MUCH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL SET UP. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA MEXICO BEFORE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT AND CAN EXPECT CHANGES FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
BARRING SOME VFR BREAKS THIS MORNING, MVFR STRATUS SHOULD HOLD
TIGHT AT LBB AND PVW UNTIL NOON-ISH WHILE CDS SEES A DECLINE TO
MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. IFR AND LIFR STRATUS ARE A SAFE
BET TONIGHT ON THE CAPROCK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED
VISBYS THROUGH FRIDAY A.M.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93
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