079
FXUS64 KLUB 302316
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST FILLING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN OVERHEAD. THE LOW STRATUS
LAYER THAT FILLED IN OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY, HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. LIFT FROM A PASSING UPPER JET WILL KEEP BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRANSLATE ON SHORE AND CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
REACHES NM, IT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN TO A TROUGH BEFORE PASSING ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROLONG RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR OUR
REGION WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CONUS
EFFECTIVELY KILLING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAPE RANGING
BETWEEN 0 TO 100 J/KG, NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
OFF THE CAPROCK. PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES OVER THE
EXTREME FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UP TO 1.25 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
RAIN SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. THE ENTIRE CWA COULD SEE SOME RAIN WITH STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UP TO 1.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PREVAILING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS, TODAY WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES OF MID TO
UPPER 50S WILL SLIGHTLY WARM TO THE LOWER 60S FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN SHOWERS, TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OFF THE CAPROCK TO WARM TO THE LOWER 60S WHILE
TEMPERATURES ON THE CAPROCK WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT CAUSED THE RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEFORE MOVING OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL DRY CONDITIONS
OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP THAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. 80 TO 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. DEPENDING ON THE
FUELS FOLLOWING THE RAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE LEE LOW EXITS THE REGION, A BACK DOOR FRONT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK, THOUGH NOT BY
MUCH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL SET UP. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA MEXICO BEFORE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT AND CAN EXPECT CHANGES FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
MVFR CIGS AT KLBB AND KPVW WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT, WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY. VFR OVERCAST PERSISTS AT KCDS,
WITH MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY 06Z BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR
BY SUNRISE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TAF PERIOD, WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS,
PRIMARILY AT KLBB AND KPVW. A STRAY TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IS LOW AND SEVERE TSTMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. CIGS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO IMPROVE NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS END.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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