069
FXUS64 KLUB 010351
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1051 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- RAIN REMAINS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS QUICKLY TRACKING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AN
ASSOCIATED FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE CURRENT RAINFALL
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE
DURATION OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN FLOW PATTERN AS AN OPEN WAVE. GIVEN THIS TRACK, THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SW TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE INITIAL SHOT OF
RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE LOW IS SOUTH OF THE AZ/NM BORDER
AND THE MOISTURE FETCH DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ORIENTED
MORE OUT OF THE SW. THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE
MOST RAINFALL LATE-MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. CAMS AND SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT OF AT LEAST THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF NOT MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER, WITH THE FAR SE
PANHANDLE LIKELY NOT SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING. TOTAL AMOUNTS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT TRICKY, HOWEVER AS MENTIONED, HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS, AT AROUND 1 INCH WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS WILL LESSEN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT MODEL AVERAGES FOR LUBBOCK ARE AROUND
0.3", HOWEVER THAT IS EVEN BECOMING MORE OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, REMAINING IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, ANY THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW
60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH SW SURFACE WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN GENERALLY
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. TUESDAY WILL ALSO SEE
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE FLOW, HOWEVER WILL NOT TRIGGER ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT, BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 5-8 DEGREES. A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS SUCH,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN PLEASANT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS FURTHER VEERING
EASTWARD BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
MVFR CIGS AT KLBB AND KPVW WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT, WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY. VFR OVERCAST PERSISTS AT KCDS,
WITH MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY 06Z BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR
BY SUNRISE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TAF PERIOD, WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS,
PRIMARILY AT KLBB AND KPVW. A STRAY TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IS LOW AND SEVERE TSTMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. CIGS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO IMPROVE NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS END.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...09
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